Are the New England Patriots contenders in 2021?

Following an active offseason, the Patriots seem to be right back in the "contenders list". However, is the hype surrounding them real?

It's fair to say that following the release of arguably the greatest ever player to grace an NFL field in Tom Brady, the Patriots have suffered a downward spiral in the 2020 season. With poor play from 2015 NFL MVP Cam Newton, the WR corps not showing any promise & the defense taking a huge step back, the future looked bleak for the Patriots. To add salt to their already huge wounds, 2020 also saw the rise of 2 divisional rivals in the Buffalo Bills & the Miami Dolphins, both of whom look to be contenders for a long time.

With the Patriots heading into an uncertain offseason, questions started to emerge - Would Cam Newton be traded to the Washington Football Team? How do the Patriots plan on revitalizing the WR position, as all their targets had a caught a combined 12 total touchdowns? Is picking 15th overall enough to yield the superstar talent that the team so desperately needs?

The Patriots dynasty, which could go down as the greatest dynasty in the history of sports, finally seemed to be in the rearview mirror, much to the delight of the public. But nothing could prepare anyone for what was about to come next.

It was a cloudy day on the 14th of March in Boston. While people went about their daily lives, the Patriots' front office were completing moves that would get people hyped up for months to come.

The Patriots signed WR Nelson Agholor, a WR who was an integral part to the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles, a team that eventually won the Superbowl. To add depth to the position, they signed Kendrick Bourne on a 15 million dollar deal, spanning 3 years.

To help the TE position, they added the Tennessee Titans' Jonnu Smith & the Los Angeles Chargers' Hunter Henry, both of whom are elite TEs.

And finally, to reboot the defense that took a huge step back in 2020, they added Matt Judon of the Baltimore Ravens and Kyle van Noy of the Miami Dolphins.

To bolster their OL, which allowed 37 sacks in 2020, they traded with the Las Vegas Raiders, to acquire Trent Brown.

Before you knew it, the Patriots, who only a few weeks ago were considered to be a mediocre team, were now being considered challengers for the Superbowl. The AFC East seemed the most wide open in its history with now 3 of the 4 teams challenging for the top spot.

However, despite all the excitement that surrounded the Patriots, it was no secret that they still had no depth in football's most important position: quarterback.

5 years ago, the NFL's landscape was very different - the Arizona Cardinals had made the NFC Championship game with Carson Palmer at QB, the Cincinnati Bengals had made the wildcard round, losing only by 2 to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos had just played a Superbowl that went down to the wire, with the Broncos and their stingy defense coming out victorious.

The man who was the face of NFL was Panthers QB Cam Newton. His electric play led the Panthers to a 15-1 record and following their loss to the Broncos in Superbowl 50, he was named league MVP.

With the world at his feet, the NFL braced for a new dynasty in the Panthers.

However, 4 years later in 2020, the Panthers released Newton, where the Patriots picked him up in Free Agency. The Panthers had not become the team that we were all excited to see them become. They had had a losing record following their Superbowl loss in 2016, posting a record of 29-35. What went wrong?

Despite average play from their players, the Panthers were held back by frequent injuries to Newton.

Lingering shoulder injuries, paired with sprains and head injuries meant he missed a significant portion of their games. Even when the did take to the field, he never looked his 2015 self, as the injuries had taken a toll on him. The Panthers didn't help matters, as they made Newton play through injury, which further worsened his condition.

On 24 March 2020, after failing to find a trade partner for Newton, he was let go.

After what was nearly 3 months of no interest from NFL teams, he was picked up by the Patriots in FA.

No one knew what to expect from Newton. On one hand, he had Bill Belichick as his new coach, a coach who is known for squeezing out the last bits of juice in players that would've been called "washed out" by the media. On the other hand, Newton had sustained a lot of injuries, and it had evidently taken a toll on his body, leading many to wonder if his physically-demanding play could be sustained for 16 games.

Through the first 3 weeks of the NFL season, he once again showed the world his talents when at full strength, and made the Patriots' rebuilding job seem not so hard, after all.

However, during their Week 4 clash against the Kansas City Chiefs, Newton was ruled, following him testing positive for COVID-19. Although he would return the following week against the Denver Broncos, it seemed as if something wasn't right for Newton for the rest of the season.

Despite having a good season in the rushing department, his passing season was arguably his worst, as he threw for 2,657 yards, 8 TDs & 10 INTs. His passing game got so bad that during their Week 16 matchup against the Buffalo Bills, he got benched for Jarrett Stidham in the third quarter.

That brings us to where we began - a 7-9 Patriots team that didn't have a good draft spot to draft a good QB, with no receiving weapons and an average defense. We just read how the Patriots fixed needs of theirs though the FA market, but they still had a glaring need at football's most important position: the QB position.

Even after the FA signings, no one knew what the Patriots would do at the QB position. Cam Newton had gone on the "I am Athlete" podcast, where he explained his struggles following his positive COVID-19 test, saying he started overthinking and felt stagnant once returning to the field. People were torn on whether it was Newton making excuses or if he was being genuine. It felt too big of a risk to consider the Patriots contenders when there was a huge question mark at the QB position.

All the Patriots could do was hope everything fell their way and they were either able to secure a franchise QB through the draft, or through FA, or hope that Newton has a bounce back season in 2021.

Shockingly, everything seemed to work out for them. The Carolina Panthers, a team that was almost certainly going to pick a QB using their eighth overall pick traded for New York Jets QB Sam Darnold, thus eliminating their need for a QB.

In the draft, the Atlanta Falcons, who were picking fourth, chose TE Kyle Pitts, while the Detroit Lions & the Denver Broncos also wound up choosing non-QBs.

The teams I had mentioned above were all slated to pick QBs by the leagues top analysts. Suddenly, the Patriots were in prime position to select Alabama QB Mac Jones, 15th overall. The Patriots, against all odds, had found themselves their franchise QB through the draft.

With the main pieces of the new look Patriots in place, it's time to ask ourselves the question: are the 2021 Patriots contenders, or pretenders?

If you read my previous article, you would have guessed that I'm not the biggest Mac Jones fan there is. I feel that his stats at Alabama were inflated by the fact that there was a time in his college career that he threw to 4 future firs-round WRs in Henry Ruggs III, Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle & DeVonta Smith (who won the Heisman Trophy in 2020).

His lack of mobility & the fact that he only had one full season under his belt at Alabama make me feel that the reason he was a first rounder not because of his talent, rather the fact that the QB position is the most important position in football and a lot of teams heading into the draft needed one.

Aside from Mac Jones, I feel that there still isn't much depth in the receiving corps. According to ESPN, their two best WRs are Jakobi Meyers, who simply isn't good enough to be a No. 1 WR for a team looking to contend & Nelson Agholor, who despite a strong start to his Las Vegas Raiders career in 2020, fell off dramatically as the playoff race started heating up.

True, the Patriots do compensate for a lack of WR depth by having arguably the best TE duo in the NFL right now in Jonnu Smith Smith & Hunter Henry. However, I still feel this doesn't outweigh the lack of talent at the WR position, as TE routes are much more closer to the QB and rarely go as deep as a WR can. Along with this, Henry does seem like a wildcard player, as despite world class play from Los Angeles Chargers' QB Justin Herbert, leading to more targets, his stats went down when compared to his 2019 season.

One aspect I am confident of, however, is the defensive side of the ball. The defense, which was one of the league's best in 2020, only seems to have gotten better, following the additions of Matt Judon and Kyle van Noy.

Taking all of this into account, I predicted the record of the 2021 New England Patriots.

Oh wow. After finalizing this, I spent nearly 2 whole minutes trying to figure out if I made a mistake in a prediction or if I made a counting error, but nope.

Assuming we don't see the AFC East try to imitate the 2020 NFC East and produce a group winner with a losing record, the 2021 Patriots will most certainly miss the postseason if all my prediction holds true.

I'll end with this - while I stand by my prediction of the Patriots being the disappointment of the season, my prediction seems to me as a worst-case scenario. For example, I don't expect the Dolphins to sweep the Patriots, given how unconvincing the Dolphins looked when QB Tua Tagovailoa took to the field. With one of the NFL's toughest schedules in 2021, it will be interesting to see if the Patriots will live up to their hype in 2021.

Sources: ESPN, World Weather, Wikipedia, NFL, Getty Images, Pro Football Reference